Ladies and Gentlemen,
Let me begin by singling out the leadership of Mrs. Sonja Licht and the Belgrade Fund for Political Excellence in advancing the cause, reputation and quality of the civil society sector in Serbia. Your many years of selfless service to our country and the entire region immeasurably helped us overcome the tumults of the 1990s and, in the wake of October 5th, greatly facilitated the development of our democracy. We all owe you a debt of gratitude. Thank you very much, dear Sonja.
We have come together to launch the Belgrade Security Forum, jointly organized by the BFPE, the Belgrade Center for Security Policy, and the European Movement in Serbia.
Our theme is “The Balkans and Global Security: What do we have in common, what sets us apart?”
I want to say at the onset that I do not believe any of the issues we face as a region set us fundamentally apart from the world’s security agenda. To be able to put regional security issues and developments in their proper context, I believe we should start from a brief survey of the global landscape. We are all so interconnected that it has become practically impossible to examine any region in isolation anymore.
Let me start by saying that the international system is going through a period of great transformation: we are experiencing one of the most serious times of change in peacetime. Its exact nature, depth and scope are still too difficult to grasp. Brazil’s emergence, Russia’s reassertion, India’s ascent, and China’s rise have all contributed to an exponential increase in the complexity of the world’s game. But so has an inescapable trend in global finance—as traditional debtor and creditor countries engage in an unprecedented role reversal drama.
Two phenomena manifest themselves simultaneously and on a global scale: ‘power transition’ and ‘power diffusion.’ This has never happened before. The stage appears to be getting far more crowded and difficult to control. To this we should add the recent events in the Eastern Mediterranean—that is to say, the geopolitical uncertainty that seems likely to intensify further, due to the ultimate outcomes of the various revolts.
In sum, what we are witnessing is not just another generational reshuffling of the deck, but a drastic—and seemingly instantaneous—increase in the number of cards, players, and rules.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I have the privilege of discussing these issues with many leaders throughout the world. They’re all very concerned. No one seems to have a clear picture of what the world will look like in the not too distant future. Today’s world cannot be understood through the lens of the 20th century security paradigm. Simply put, nothing seems to be predictable anymore.
Under such circumstances, diplomacy is becoming more difficult to practice effectively—especially for smaller actors on the international scene.
A country like ours has to make very sure it assesses the international circumstances correctly.
We can unfortunately testify as to what can happen when one gets it wrong. Take 1989. Throughout the Western Balkans, the significance of that year’s changes was profoundly misjudged. So while in many other parts of the world, 1989 symbolized the start of promising new era; for our region, it represented first and foremost a missed opportunity, leading to a great tragedy.
We are working very hard to avoid repeating the basic mistakes of 1989—namely to think one can ignore fundamental changes in international politics without consequence.
We also have to keep devoting a tremendous amount of energy to make sure we set the right proportion of means to ends—to determine the right balance of what is needed, with what may be desired. That is the role of statecraft: to bridge the divides, whilst securing legitimacy.
It is what has enabled the democratic transformation of the region to take place. This is the perspective from which I would like to put forward my view that the Western Balkans is a pocket of stability in a world of increasingly unpredictable change.
When you take a moment to examine the regional landscape with a dispassionate eye, I think it is fair to say that we are a success story in the making. We stand at the point of no return. We still face significant challenges, of course. I do not mean to downplay them, but only to emphasize that as a region, we are well on our way towards completing the process of democratic consolidation.
For instance, we should recognize the many new levels of cooperation that exist in our region. In fact, relations have never been better. But the region must also acknowledge that as it develops, its successes can generate new challenges, like how to manage the democratic expectations related to our EU accession timetable.
But at the end of the day, I think our achievements are irreversible. That is why I am absolutely certain that the Republic of Serbia and the rest of the Western Balkans will join the European Union. Let there be no doubt about that. This is a promise that will be kept.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I would now like to say a few words about some of the first-tier security issues of our time.
Let me repeat once again my view that without exception, the framework is global. From energy security, economic instability and climate change, to nuclear safety, terrorism and organized crime, as well as ethnic and religious extremism—and of course, attempts at unilateral secession. Each one of them requires an inclusive, multilateral approach. Yet our existing multilateral institutions are no longer aligned with the actual distribution of power and influence. This is a serious challenge that will need to be addressed in the near future.
Just think of the Bretton Woods institutions—the IMF and the World Bank—and how voting power no longer reflects adequately economic power.
Now, also consider how intertwined our economies are with just a few of the other security issues I just mentioned. Poverty and unemployment open the door for the expansion of organized crime and terrorism—from Somalia and Afghanistan all the way to our part of the world, both are now global industries. They are the dark side of globalization. They attach themselves to weak societies. They attach themselves to political and religious extremists. They attempt to buy and subvert democracies. Like water, they spread to where they find least resistance. They are global and globalised in their inter-connections.
This is not something we should discuss in detail, but I want you to know that Serbia has made a strong contribution to the fight against terrorism. We are a valued partner in ongoing efforts to contain and ultimately eliminate terrorism from the face of the earth.
Let me say a few words about organized crime. I consider it to be one of the greatest challenges to my country and, if I may say, to the whole region.
We have a common responsibility as Balkan leaders to eliminate this scourge on our societies, and Serbia will spare no effort in our quest to eradicate this threat.
We will continue to lead an informal strategic alliance against organized crime.
Serbia’s zero-tolerance policy means that no one—absolutely no one—will be permitted to stand beyond the reach of the law. Our police and judiciary institutions will continue their relentless pursuit of crime bosses and their collaborators.
We have done a tremendous amount, and we will stay the course. We will not rest.
But I want to be very clear: we hope that all Western Balkan states will make fighting it a priority. All our neighbors should begin tackling organized crime as strongly, as forcefully, and with as much dedication and success as Serbia.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I turn now to the global security threat posed by unilateral attempts at secession.
In our part of the world, when we talk about unilateralism and secession, we talk about Kosovo, we talk about how it has complicated regional relations, and we talk about the dangerous precedent it sets across the world.
We sometimes forget the basic structure of world politics. So let me provide a brief summary of the architecture we operate in. The international system is predicated on a set of rules that apply to everyone without exception. Its binding principles include the sovereign equality of states, the respect for the territorial integrity and the inviolability of internationally recognized borders. This is what the UN Charter is basically about.
Kosovo’s UDI fundamentally violates these basic norms of global governance. If allowed to stand, it would cause severe damage to the international system in at least the following six ways.
First, it would legitimize the act of unilateral secession by a provincial or non-state actor. Second, it would transform the right to self-determination into an avowed right to independence. Third, it would legitimize the forced partition of internationally recognized, sovereign states. Fourth, it would violate the commitment to the peaceful and consensual resolution of disputes in Europe. Fifth, it would supply any ethnic or religious group that has a grievance against its capital with a playbook on how to achieve its ends. And sixth, it would resurrect the discredited cold-war doctrine of limited sovereignty.
If Kosovo’s UDI becomes an acceptable norm, many existing conflicts would escalate, frozen conflicts would reignite, and new ones would be instigated.
In the era of globalization, legitimizing the Kosovo precedent would make the international system more unstable, more insecure, and more unpredictable.
I think finding an alternative way forward would be in the general interest of the international community. That way forward is dialogue, producing a mutually-acceptable, compromise solution to the problem of Kosovo.
This is the sort of positive precedent Kosovo could become. A precedent that overcomes divisions, not entrenches them. And a precedent that enhances stability and consolidates the peace—not one that makes people think they can threaten the use of force anytime they don’t get everything they want.
I must here express my grave concern: Unilateral action announced to happen tomorrow concerning an attempt of Pristina with EULEX to impose customs control at the administrative line in Northern Kosovo would seriously endanger peace and stability of the whole region. That solution has not been agreed between Belgrade and Pristina. This must be prevented.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I would like to conclude by saying that everything Serbia has done in the international arena has been in the service of strengthening the security architecture of our part of the world.
We have done so while weathering enormous international challenges against incredible odds.
So if you take away only one message from my remarks today, let it be this: we will keep trying to accommodate the global changes in ways that serve the interests we all share—so that the entire region can emerge from the present inter-polar moment in a more advantageous position than the one we were in when the tumults began.
We still have a long way to go. It will take the hard work of a generation before we fulfill our declared goals. Yet this should not distract us from doing our duty—for otherwise, we run the colossal risk of falling further behind.
We have to make sure that we stay the course—for when all is said and done, our strategic task is to build our European future, and end the era of discontent in the Balkans.
Thank you very much.
Source: http://www.predsednik.rs/mwc/default.asp?c=303500&g=20110915114102&lng=eng&hs1=0
autor: www.predsednik.rs
